Estimating the Competitive Storage Model with Trending Commodity Prices

We present a method to estimate jointly the parameters of a standard commodity storage model and the parameters characterizing the trend in commodity prices. This procedure allows the influence of a possible trend to be removed without restricting the model specification, and allows model and trend selection based on statistical criteria. The trend is modeled deterministically using linear or cubic spline functions of time. The results show that storage models with trend are always preferred to models without trend. They yield more plausible estimates of the structural parameters, with storage costs and demand elasticities that are more consistent with the literature. They imply occasional stockouts, whereas without trend the estimated models predict no stockouts over the sample period for most commodities. Moreover, accounting for a trend in the estimation implies price moments closer to those observed in commodity prices. Our results support the empirical relevance of the speculative storage model, and show that storage model estimations should not neglect the possibility of long‐run price trends. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A STRUCTURAL RISK‐NEUTRAL MODEL FOR PRICING AND HEDGING POWER DERIVATIVES

We develop a structural risk‐neutral model for energy market modifying along several directions the approach introduced in Aïd et al. In particular, a scarcity function is introduced to allow important deviations of the spot price from the marginal fuel price, producing price spikes. We focus on pricing and hedging electricity derivatives. The hedging instruments are forward contracts on fuels and electricity. The presence of production capacities and electricity demand makes such a market incomplete. We follow a local risk minimization approach to price and hedge energy derivatives. Despite the richness of information included in the spot model, we obtain closed‐form formulae for futures prices and semiexplicit formulae for spread options and European options on electricity forward contracts. An analysis of the electricity price risk premium is provided showing the contribution of demand and capacity to the futures prices. We show that when far from delivery, electricity futures behave like a basket of futures on fuels.     

Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Eurozone: A Lack of Forward Guidance?

From July to December 2011, the three-month EURIBOR-OIS and EURIBOR-Repo spreads quadrupled and reached 100 basis points due to a stabilization of the EURIBOR and a decrease in the overnight index swap (OIS) and Repo. Using a specific monetary policy announcements and financial indicators database, we find that the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) unconventional measures did not systematically have a calming effect: Asset buyout announcements decreased market strains, whereas interest rates and liquidity provision announcements did not. Moreover, liquidity provision seems to have a stressing effect. Our findings are consistent with the theoretical underpinnings according to which forward guidance crucially determines the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policies.     

Capital accumulation and ground-rent in Brazil: 1953–2008

The paper measures the size of primary-sector surpluses in the form of ground-rent appropriated by social subjects other than landowners in Brazil, and assesses their weight in supporting the process of capital accumulation during the period 1953–2008. For that purpose, the paper identifies the mechanisms through which state policies channelled a portion of ground-rent to capital, especially in the industrial sector, assessing their individual impact. The paper finds that transferred ground-rent has complemented surplus-value normally available for appropriation by capital and thus helped sustain its process of accumulation throughout most the period analysed here, including the post-1990 ‘neoliberal’ era.     

Book Reviews

The evaluative function of local public actors has been exacerbated in recent years with the individualisation of social policies. One of their tasks is to select the appropriate informational basis in order to assess welfare claimants. Amartya Sen's capability approach offers a theoretical and normative framework to analyse this evaluative function. In particular, it insists on the importance of “objectivating” people's preferences with reference to their capabilities. The weight that is to be attached to individual preferences in the course of public action can be a matter of controversy. Claimants “capability for voice”, we argue, should be developed. This capability refers to their effective possibility to express their concerns with regard to the choice of the informational basis. It is argued that local institutions prohibiting capability for voice will produce adaptive preferences, whereas procedural institutions promoting reflexive public evaluation and capability for voice will result in a fairer wording of individual preferences. At a situated level, the way to connect subjective and objective information when assessing people very much depends on the position of the evaluator. Several illustrations show that the fairness of evaluation, and its impact on the people's capability set, depend on this positional perspective.     

Productivity growth and biased technological change: The case of Moroccan hotels

This paper proposes a procedure to analyze Moroccan hotels productivity, based on Luenberger productivity indicator to estimate and decompose productivity change into efficiency change and technological change. This paper enlarges the procedure and further decomposes technological change to study the sources of bias in technological change. Therefore, a clearer and more enlightening view of tourism productivity change emerges. Policy implications are developed.     

The Developmental Impact of Asian Drivers on Kenya with Emphasis on Textiles and Clothing Manufacturing

(1251) Paul Kamau with Dorothy McCormick and Nicolas Pinaud Kenya has enjoyed a relatively diversified economy (at least by SSA standards), with light manufacturing industries in particular playing a significant growing role. The rise of Asian competition (locally, regionally and on third‐country markets), partly due to the erosion of trade preferences for clothing and footwear, has raised fresh policy challenges. The specific relevance of the clothing industry in the analysis of China’s and India’s impact on Africa is manifold: this is a low‐skilled labour‐intensive industry, and hence an avenue for African economies’ diversification; the competition from Asian producers vis‐à‐vis the SSA clothing industry is felt at the local, regional and global level (on third‐country markets): it is therefore direct and indirect; also, the Asian Drivers’ impact on African clothing industries has both a trade and investment dimension while being competitive and complementary.     

Locked Up by a Lockup: Valuing Liquidity as a Real Option

Hedge funds often impose lockups and notice periods to limit the ability of investors to withdraw capital. We model the investor's decision to withdraw capital as a real option and treat lockups and notice periods as exercise restrictions. Our methodology incorporates time-varying probabilities of hedge fund failure and optimal early exercise. We estimate a two-year lockup with a three-month notice period costs approximately 1% of the initial investment for an investor with constant relative risk aversion utility and risk aversion of three. The cost of illiquidity can easily exceed 10% if the hedge fund manager can arbitrarily suspend withdrawals.